GSMA: ‘Spectrum shortages could hinder 6G rollout and future digital growth’

A new GSMA study warns that mid-band spectrum shortages threaten to slow down 6G deployment and digital progress globally, urging early policy action to secure future mobile capacity.

Telecom regulators and operators face a narrowing window to plan for a 6G future, according to a GSMA study that warns mid‑band spectrum shortages could choke network capacity and slow digital growth through the 2030s. The report, Vision 2040: Spectrum for the Future of Mobile Connectivity, projects that next‑generation 6G services will require up to three times more mid‑band spectrum than is typically available today to support surging data, AI‑driven services and immersive applications. “This study shows that the 6G era will require three times more mid-band spectrum than is available today,” said John Giusti, Chief Regulatory Officer at the GSMA. ^[1][3]

Compiled by GSMA Intelligence and the GSMA’s global spectrum team, the analysis estimates that countries will need an average of 2–3 GHz of mid‑band spectrum in the 2035–2040 period to satisfy capacity needs in the most densely populated urban areas; higher‑demand markets could require 2.5–4 GHz. The report also forecasts commercial 6G rollouts from around 2030, with early deployments expected in China, Japan, South Korea, the United States, Europe, India, Vietnam and Gulf states, and more than five billion 6G connections by 2040. Industry modelling further suggests global mobile traffic could climb to as much as 3,900 exabytes per month by 2040. ^[2][3]

To meet those requirements the GSMA urges long‑term, harmonised spectrum planning well ahead of regulatory milestones such as WRC‑27, the International Telecommunication Union conference where countries will negotiate future mobile bands. The report lists potential mid‑band ranges under discussion to expand mobile capacity, including 3.8–4.2 GHz, 4.4–4.99 GHz, the upper 6 GHz band (6.425–7.125 GHz) and 7.125–8.4 GHz , ranges that would need coordinated policy decisions and international alignment to unlock economies of scale and equipment availability. ^[2][7]

The GSMA cautions that while operators can squeeze greater efficiency from networks through AI‑RAN, denser site deployment and other technical advances, these measures alone will not close the gap between demand and available spectrum. Without timely allocation and harmonisation, the body warns of slower mobile speeds, rising congestion and missed economic opportunities as businesses and consumers attempt to adopt next‑generation digital tools. ^[1][3]

The warning arrives amid signs of rapidly rising data use and mobile subscriptions in Nigeria, illustrating the practical stakes for emerging markets. Nigerian Communications Commission figures show active mobile subscriptions rising to roughly 175 million and teledensity near 81 per cent as of October 2025, while broadband penetration approaches 50 per cent with about 107 million connections recorded in September 2025. Despite widespread 4G coverage, 5G adoption remains limited, and operators are already employing spectrum sharing and leasing strategies , for example MTN Nigeria’s disclosed intent to lease spectrum from T2 Mobile , to cope with capacity pressures. Those local dynamics, combined with fast urbanisation in megacities such as Lagos and Abuja, underscore how quickly national networks could strain without additional mid‑band allocations. ^[1][4][5]

Policy implications are clear: regulators should begin identifying candidate bands, defining technical rules and designing licensing frameworks that encourage efficient use while preserving competition. The GSMA stresses that early, predictable spectrum roadmaps will help keep 6G services affordable and widely available, and will be key to enabling AI‑embedded services and immersive consumer and industrial applications at scale. Industry data and the report argue that delayed decisions will raise the cost of network upgrades and risk unequal access as demand concentrates in dense urban centres. ^[2][3]

For nations balancing incumbent uses, satellite interests and other spectrum claimants, the GSMA study provides a menu of bands and timescales that can inform national strategies. The organisation’s call is pragmatic rather than prescriptive: harmonisation, market‑sensitive licensing and clear timelines are presented as the most reliable means to convert spectrum policy into sustainable economic and social benefits. As governments prepare for international negotiations and national roadmaps for the 2030s, the choice to act early or defer will shape the practical reach and inclusivity of the 6G era. ^[2][3][1]

📌 Reference Map:

##Reference Map:

• ^[1] (Punch) – Paragraph 1, Paragraph 4, Paragraph 5, Paragraph 7
• ^[2] (GSMA Vision 2040 report) – Paragraph 2, Paragraph 3, Paragraph 6, Paragraph 7
• ^[3] (GSMA press release) – Paragraph 1, Paragraph 2, Paragraph 4, Paragraph 6
• ^[4] (Vanguard) – Paragraph 5
• ^[5] (The Sun/TheStar) – Paragraph 5

Source: Fuse Wire Services